Evaluating the performance of a WRF initial and physics ensemble over Eastern Black Sea and Mediterranean regions in Turkey

The physics- and initial-based ensemble approach for Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model is applied predicting four different extreme precipitation events that occurred in summer autumn over the two most flood-prone regions of Turkey, namely; Eastern Black Sea (EBS) Mediterranean (MED). A total 48 runs, each which includes nested domains, designed considering microphysics (MP), three cumulus (CU), planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, initial forcing datasets (ERA5 Global Forecast System (GFS)) event. forecast skill runs measured through hierarchic application Technique Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method using five categorical statistical metrics. best ten members event are validated on independent events. MP scheme influential estimates between especially However, choice a specific varies with season region. Similarly, PBL CU schemes show high dependency timing location. Forecasts based ERA5 yield highest accuracy EBS, while GFS-based forecasts better MED Most top represented from 9-km domain. parameterization generally shows more significant impact than initiation variability spatiotemporal runs. Also, dynamic downscaling WRF indeed produces products topographically complex regions.